Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-07 1.202093 1.265459 1.331089 1.404287 1.483824 1.567832 1.663528
2025-12-14 1.083740 1.170815 1.264691 1.373968 1.498373 1.636429 1.802399
2025-12-21 1.017048 1.118352 1.230637 1.365358 1.524011 1.706706 1.935670
2025-12-28 0.978245 1.091429 1.219797 1.377810 1.569414 1.797374 2.094060
2026-01-04 0.934173 1.054218 1.192865 1.367077 1.583433 1.847945 2.203468
2026-01-11 0.909010 1.036939 1.187271 1.379948 1.624897 1.932600 2.359953
2026-01-18 0.881682 1.015054 1.174125 1.381543 1.650723 1.997175 2.492981
2026-01-25 0.868173 1.008871 1.179239 1.405374 1.705240 2.101283 2.686793
2026-02-01 0.833681 0.974974 1.147847 1.380149 1.692881 2.113562 2.750298
2026-02-08 0.797128 0.937015 1.109609 1.343871 1.663176 2.099287 2.772575
2026-02-15 0.774004 0.915109 1.090868 1.332168 1.665789 2.129587 2.862520
2026-02-22 0.756118 0.899145 1.079002 1.328799 1.679227 2.175366 2.978803
2026-03-01 0.732210 0.875345 1.056924 1.311828 1.674324 2.196489 3.062170
2026-03-08 0.705530 0.847181 1.028198 1.284609 1.653477 2.192729 3.105138
2026-03-15 0.688137 0.830545 1.014088 1.276840 1.660015 2.230157 3.218944
2026-03-22 0.679034 0.824446 1.013731 1.288076 1.694664 2.312567 3.416913
2026-03-29 0.662878 0.808395 0.999225 1.278392 1.697212 2.344102 3.527696
2026-04-05 0.655238 0.803465 0.999648 1.290005 1.732386 2.429954 3.745766
2026-04-12 0.644518 0.793995 0.993385 1.291444 1.751649 2.490569 3.922705
2026-04-19 0.641097 0.794299 1.000640 1.312929 1.803234 2.608786 4.225909
2026-04-26 0.623391 0.774478 0.978917 1.290186 1.782889 2.601602 4.274345
2026-05-03 0.603227 0.750818 0.951160 1.257438 1.744953 2.561387 4.250020
2026-05-10 0.590965 0.737854 0.938302 1.246863 1.742683 2.584159 4.361739